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The African Energy Chamber has launched its newest publication, ‘The State of African Energy: 2023 Outlook' a detailed report analysing current, emerging and future oil and gas market trends as well as geopolitical procedures shaping both the global and African oil and gas sector

AEC SAEO 2023 C 1A new report by the African Energy Chamber analyses current, emerging and future oil and gas market trends. (Image Source: AEC)

With the global oil market suffering combined impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukraine war, the report provides a detailed analysis of how production and monetisation will look like in 2023 for both African-producing countries such as Libya, Angola and Nigeria, and global energy companies

With the AEC projecting Nigeria to increase oil production from 1.65 mn bpd in 2022 to about 1.75 mn bpd in 2023 and Libya from 1.12 mn bpd in 2020 to 1.3 mn bpd in 2023, while Angola will record a decline from 1.13 mn bpd in 2022 to about 1.1 mn bpd in 2023, the report highlights the role of African energy in ensuring global energy security while exploring the challenges and opportunities faced across the continent.

Meanwhile on the gas front, as western operators exit the Russian market due to the invasion of Ukraine, a significant decline in global production and increase in prices is expected. 

With the demand for gas in Europe anticipated to rapidly increase over the next three years, and Europe seeking to replace the majority of piped gas which the bloc secures from Russia leveraging liquefied natural gas (LNG) from other regions, Africa, as the bloc’s second gas supplier in 2021 and on the back of massive untapped gas resources across the continent, is well positioned to become Europe’s main supplier.

According to the AEC report, As COVID-19 subsides, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has and will continue to lead to Brent increasing, with Africa being in a prime position to increase its natural gas output and benefit from an under-supplied LNG market and demand from Europe. Owing to the proximity of leading African producers to Europe and existing good trade relations between the two continents, despite total production across the continent declining from 2022 through 2025, Africa is expected to play a key role in meeting global demand.

Meanwhile, Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt lead African gas production and LNG flows in the short-term, with the report providing a detailed outlook regarding production, monetisation and LNG developments across Africa’s emerging and already established markets such as Equatorial Guinea, Senegal/Mauritania and Mozambique.

With Africa seeking to attract investments to optimise the development, exploitation and monetisation of hydrocarbon resources, including the estimated 125.3 bn barrels of crude oil resources and 620 tn cu/ft of gas reserves for energy security and economic expansion, and as spending is set to be taken out of Russia and directed to other regions, the report details investment trends across Africa and how trends in Russia and across the globe can shape capital allocation for projects rollout and energy trading across the continent.

What’s more, with Africa eyeing to accelerate exploration investments and activities to boost its oil and gas reserves for a sustainable energy future, the AEC report provides insights on drilling campaigns across the continent and how recent sizeable discoveries, such as TotalEnergies' and Shell’s in Namibia, will drive upstream activities in countries such as Mauritania, Senegal, Uganda, Congo, Mozambique, Ghana, Angola and Ivory Coast. The study states that drilling activity across Africa will increase marginally from about 895 wells in 2022 to 915 wells in 2023 and further to just over 1,000 wells in 2025.

Download the report here: