In The Spotlight
The escalating confrontation between the United States, Israel and Iran has introduced a new phase of geopolitical uncertainty into global energy markets
While the immediate focus remains on security implications in the Middle East, the commercial and operational consequences for Africa’s oil, gas and energy sectors are both significant and far-reaching. As global supply chains absorb the shock of rising tensions, African producers, exporters, importdependent states, and emerging energy markets are confronting a rapidly shifting landscape.
Africa’s energy systems are deeply interconnected with global markets. Crude exports, LNG flows, refinery feedstock, maritime transport and downstream pricing all depend on stable international conditions. When geopolitical volatility disrupts these conditions, the effects cascade across the continent’s upstream, midstream and downstream operations.
Oil price volatility and supply side uncertainty
The US-Israel-Iran conflict has injected renewed volatility into global oil markets. Brent crude prices have experienced sharp fluctuations driven by fears of supply disruption, potential sanctions and the risk of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz – a corridor through which roughly one fifth of global oil supply transits.
For established African producers and exporters – Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria, Egypt, the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and South Sudan – price volatility presents both opportunity and risk. Higher prices may boost short-term revenues, but instability complicates:
∙ fiscal planning
∙ production scheduling
∙ investment decisions
∙ long-term project financing
South Sudan is particularly vulnerable. Although it produces the crude, it relies entirely on Sudan for pipeline transit, refining and export through Port Sudan. Any geopolitical shock that affects global prices or regional stability amplifies the fragility of this arrangement already impacted by the internal conflict in Sudan.
For import-dependent African economies – Kenya, Uganda (until production begins), Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Senegal, Ghana, and South Africa – price spikes translate into:
∙ higher fuel import bills
∙ inflationary pressure
∙ increased subsidy burdens
∙ downstream pricing instability
The conflict has therefore widened the divergence between Africa’s energy exporters and importers, with both groups facing heightened commercial risk.
LNG shipping disruptions and maritime chokepoints
The Red Sea, Bab elMandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz remain critical arteries for global LNG and petroleum shipments. Rising tensions have led to:
∙ vessel diversions
∙ increased war risk insurance premiums
∙ longer shipping times
∙ higher freight costs
∙ rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope
For African LNG exporters – notably Algeria, Egypt and Mozambique – these disruptions affect:
∙ delivery schedules
∙ contract performance
∙ shipping economics
∙ buyer confidence
Mozambique, in particular, is emerging as a major LNG player. Its offshore reserves position it as a future global supplier, but project timelines and financing conditions are highly sensitive to global LNG market volatility. Any instability in shipping routes or pricing affects investor appetite and project momentum.
For LNG importing markets in North and East Africa, rerouting adds cost and uncertainty to already tight supply chains, affecting power generation, industrial output and domestic energy security.
Infrastructure and upstream project risk
Energy infrastructure across Africa – pipelines, refineries, offshore platforms, LNG terminals and power generation assets – is highly sensitive to global market conditions.
The current geopolitical environment has intensified:
∙ EPC contract renegotiations
∙ project delays
∙ cost escalations
∙ supplychain bottlenecks
∙ financing challenges
Upstream investment decisions are being recalibrated as international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) reassess:
∙ fluctuating price decks
∙ higher insurance premiums
∙ sanctions exposure
∙ shipping and logistics risk
Emerging producers such as Uganda, Namibia and Ghana are particularly exposed.
∙ Uganda’s Tilenga and Kingfisher projects, along with the EACOP pipeline, depend on stable financing and predictable price environments.
∙ Namibia’s offshore discoveries have generated global excitement, but long-term development decisions hinge on market stability.
∙ Ghana, while already producing, remains sensitive to price swings and relies heavily on imported refined products.
These countries illustrate how geopolitical conflict affects not only current production but also Africa’s future energy trajectory.
Commercial and contractual pressure across the value chain
The combination of price volatility, shipping disruptions and project delays has increased contractual tension across the African energy sector. Key areas of pressure include:
∙ crude supply agreements
∙ LNG offtake contracts
∙ pipeline transportation agreements
∙ refinery feedstock contracts
∙ EPC and O&M contracts
∙ charter party and shipping arrangements
Force majeure claims, renegotiation requests and performance disputes are to become more common as parties struggle to meet obligations under rapidly changing conditions.
This is where commercial risk management becomes essential.
Why ADR is becoming critical in Africa’s energy sector
In a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, effective, neutral dispute resolution capacity is no longer optional – it is a strategic necessity.
Energy disputes often involve:
∙ crossborder parties
∙ complex technical issues
∙ high value contracts
∙ time sensitive operations
∙ confidentiality requirements
Alternative Dispute Resolution – particularly arbitration, mediation and expert determination – offers:
∙ neutrality
∙ enforceability
∙ sector-specific expertise
∙ procedural flexibility
∙ continuity of commercial relationships
As global conflict continues to reshape commercial risk, African energy companies, investors and governments increasingly require dispute resolution professionals who understand both the geopolitical landscape and the operational realities of the oil and gas sector.
Africa’s energy future in a volatile world
The US-Israel-Iran conflict has underscored a fundamental truth: Africa’s energy markets are deeply exposed to global geopolitical shocks. From upstream investment to LNG shipping, refinery operations and downstream pricing, the continent’s oil and gas sector must navigate a more volatile and interconnected world.
For African producers, importers and infrastructure operators, resilience will depend on:
∙ robust commercial risk management
∙ flexible contracting strategies
∙ diversified supply chains
∙ and access to principled, neutral dispute resolution mechanisms
In this environment, the ability to anticipate disruption – and resolve disputes efficiently when they arise – will be essential to sustaining Africa’s energy growth and stability.
The article has been written by Elijah Paul RukidiMpuuga, FCIArb, International arbitrator and founder, Equitas Dispute Resolution Group
As part of phase three drilling programme offshore Gabon, Vaalco Energy has completed drilling the Etame West ET-14P exploration well
The target zone was water bearing even though 10 meters of high-quality Gamba sands were encountered in line with pre-drill predictions. Awaiting partner approval, this finding can be further pursued by utilising the well bore part to sidetrack it in the upper portion of the well. This move is expected to support the drilling of the ET-14H development well in the Main Fault Block of Etame.
The lower portion of the well will be plugged and abandoned. Operations are expected to be completed in April.
George Maxwell, Vaalco’s chief Executive Officer, said, “When we committed to drilling the Etame West exploration well, we knew there was the geologic risk of not encountering commercial sands but the size of the potential reservoir made it a risk worth taking. Furthermore, we purposely designed the well so we could still utilise the well bore to drill a development well into a known productive area if the sands were non-commercial. This side-tracked well should be completed in April.”
Vaalco has also been spudding the ET-15 infill well on the Etame platform as part of Phase Three Drilling Programme offshore Gabon.
This infill well is anticipated to significantly add to the production generation capacity of the floating storage and offloading vessel (FSO) that is operational on the Etame Block since 2022 following an extensive transition and field reconfiguration process. While a low cost solution, the FSO boasts of a high storage capacity and improved operational performance. It has helped Vaalco reach operational excellence, and production uptime and enhancement.
United Kingdom-based geophysical company, Metatek-Group Ltd, deployed its modern technology to conduct an airborne survey of the Kwanza Basin onshore Angola
Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (eFTG), scalar gravity, magnetic and LiDAR data not only offered new insights into the subsurface but also identified precise locations that hold the most potential for future drilling programmes. Data accuracy from near-surface through to deep basement is covered by eFTG, which is known to be the highest-resolution airborne gravity gradiometry technology.
When operators are planning surface access, geomorphological interpretation and environmental baselining, they can resort to high-resolution terrain models generated by LiDAR data.
The gravity and magnetic data captured enables enhanced imaging of the Basin’s architecture, including fault and transfer zone geometries and regional structural domains, alongside more detailed analysis of sediment thickness and the distribution of salt, carbonate and volcanic bodies.
Hydrocarbon resources besides, critical minerals could also be identified from selected priority areas flown at higher resolution. This will especially support the Angolan state-owned oil company Sonangol's diversification plans to critical minerals.
Conducted in partnership with Angolan-based upstream consultancy Striped Horse and the Agencia Nacional de Petroleo, Gas e Biocombustiveis (ANPG), the survey captures the full Kwanza Basin, with over 36,000 kilometres flown.
The complete dataset - together with optional interpretation products including block viability ranking - will be available for licensing from Q2 2026 under a multi-client model.
Mark Davies, CEO of Metatek, said, “This survey represents a step-change in regional and prospect-scale subsurface understanding of the onshore Kwanza Basin. The integration of eFTG, gravity, magnetics and LiDAR deliver a robust, basin-wide framework enabling more informed exploration and de-risking seismic planning and acreage decisions.”
As Oil Prospecting Licence 245 (OPL 245) undergoes conversion, the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and Eni's chief executive officer, Claudio Descalzi, met in Abuja to explore how the development can advance the Nigerian deepwater sectors
A significant feature of the agreement is the discontinuation of the international arbitration proceeding at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), thus allowing the conversion of the existing license into two development licences, Petroleum Mining Leases (PML) 102 and 103, and two exploration licences, Petroleum Prospecting Leases (PPL) 2011 and 2012, to Nigerian Agip Exploration Limited (NAE) as operator, alongside its partners Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCO).
The agreement will considerably push Nigeria's deepwater development with Eni set to apply its know-how on the Zabazaba and Etan fields for optimal output. An extensive programme has been devised to generate approximately 500 MMbbl of reserves from the fields, including the deployment of a 150 kbopd capacity FPSO processing facility, while gas (200 MMSCFD at peak) will be exported through Nigeria LNG. The highly potential PPL 2011 and PPL 2012 exploration licenses will also be developed in line with the Zabazaba and Etan fields for a well-synced operational and production output from all facilities involved.
President Tinubu and Mr Descalzi also discussed Eni’s significant investment portfolio — including the Abo and Bonga fields and Nigeria LNG — as well as on potential new developments designed to expand the country’s offshore production capacity. Within this framework, and in line with its long-term strategy in the country, Eni has recently expanded its interests in deep-water developments, with the acquisition of an additional stake in OML 118, now holding 15%.
Energy data and intelligence provider, TGS, has announced the Ultra Profundo multi-client 2D survey offshore Angola
The survey spans approximately 12,600 line kilometers, and Ramform Victory began operations earlier in Q1. Data acquisition is likely to be completed in around 100 days, with fast-track products available in Q3. Full data processing is scheduled for completion in Q2 2027.
The Ultra Profundo multi-client 2D survey marks the first 2D multi-client acquisition over Angola’s ultra deep-water areas since 2015 and aims to reach previously underexplored region. The survey delivers modern, long-offset seismic data critical for imaging complex pre-salt and top-salt structures as well as basin floor channel systems, significantly enhancing regional geological understanding.
Kristian Johansen, CEO of TGS, said, “Angola’s ultra deep-water margin represents one of the most exciting frontier exploration opportunities in West Africa. Our Ultra Profundo multi-client 2D program delivers high-quality seismic coverage needed to unlock pre-salt and sub-salt potential. By leveraging TGS’ acquisition and imaging capabilities, we will provide high-quality data supporting future exploration activities.”
With all reservoir and operations risks for 2026 considered, Tullow Oil is aiming an average production rate of 34-42 kboepd, including 6 kboepd of gas
In 2025, Ntomme and Enyenra performance from TEN led the field's total production count at 16.0 kbopd, while the exit rate from Jubilee stood at 57 kbopd.
The company will be deploying riser system and riser-base gas lift for well production management activities, and waterflood and fluid lift optimisation. These, along with the support of high-uptime FPSO, five planned Jubilee wells (four producers and one water injector) are expected onstream this year. The J75-P, for instance -- where a rig has been active for drilling -- has recorded three good reservoir intervals.
The recently completed J74-P well is already onstream since January, revealing 50 meters of net pay while generating an initial gross production through the wellbore at 13 kbopd.
The well management measures align with findings from 4D seismic and Ocean Bottom Node seismic surveys to leverage significant reservoir information extracted.
Tullow has made a strategic investment to acquire the TEN FPSO as it will simplify operational synergies between the TEN and Jubilee fields, maximising output in the long term with minimal expenses. The company has already secured 10-year and 14-year-long ratifications on the West Cape Three Points and Deep Water Tano Petroleum Agreements.
Ian Perks, chief executive officer, Tullow Oil Plc, said, “2025 has been a year of disciplined execution across the business. This includes strong operational momentum which continues with excellent results from the latest Jubilee well and a further five wells due onstream this year to support our production targets. We have achieved significant cost reductions and completed the sale of non-core assets in our ongoing efforts to streamline our portfolio and strengthen our financial position.
“However our 2025 full year free cashflow was negatively impacted by the commodity price environment towards the end of the year and delays in receipt of Government of Ghana receivables and the second instalment of proceeds from the Kenya disposal.
“The refinancing transaction we have announced today enables us to focus on delivering our near-term priorities, which include driving further cost efficiencies, improving cashflow management and optimising our production."
Crystol Energy's founder and chief executive officer, Dr. Carole Nakhle, moderated an Africa-focused panel during the recently concluded International Energy Week in London to get a perspective on the continent's stand on decarbonisation and energy transition practices
"It's not saying that decarbonisation should be ignored, but the truth is, you can't decarbonise what you don't have. If you don't have energy, you can't be talking about decarbonisation. You have to have the energy faster than you decarbonise," said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company's chief financial officer, Adedapo Segun, in the context of poor energy access in Africa.
Segun's case was further supported by Renaissance Africa Energy Company's managing director and chief executive officer, Tony Attah, who said that with a teeming youth population, Africa cannot compromise on industrialisation. "I think it's a no brainer that from an African lens, from a Nigerian lens, industrialisation is what will move people out of poverty. We want to be given the flexibility to use the same resources to achieve what Europe and the rest of the world has achieved. From an African lens, it's survival first. I haven't survived. You're asking me to make a choice. It's about the industrialisation of Africa...when you talk about the whole emissions and impact on climate, data suggests that the entire Africa is contributing way less than 4% so essentially, we can even carry on at two, three times the scale today, and it will not be of any significant impact," Attah said.
While Dr. Nakhle was all ears, she stressed Africa's responsibility to eliminate flaring for sustainable production. "Just by increasing the penalty on gas flaring, you motivate the companies to actually still produce oil and gas with lower carbon intensity, because I think that would be the winning step for the future, and not to continue with what was a good old fashioned way of producing oil and gas."
According to Attah, flaring has been a focus area for most creditors as part of decarbonisation strategy, which aligns with attaining zero routine flare by 2030. With engineers working on projects to deal with gas storm compression infrastructure that are capable of moving gas from flood centres to the market, there has been a massive reduction in flare now.
Gas is already driving Africa's energy narrative, with around 620 trillion standard cubic feet coming solely from Algeria, Mozambique and Nigeria. The world has come to Africa with massive investments, not just for international market but also the domestic market. The nation is hence way past the stage of "making a case", as now its just a matter of the investments unleashing the potential that is trapped in all these countries.
"Gas is going to be the game changer for us. So we are looking to develop our gas resources and export the gas to derive the financing for developing the country, and bridging the infrastructure gap," said AGPC's managing director, Effiong Okon, as he gave some perspective on Nigeria's national budget against the infrastructure budget of European countries.
"We have a budget of just about 20 something million dollars. That is for the whole country, and 45% of that goes to debt service. Another 15% goes to security. So you have 60% of the budget locked in debt service and security. And with that, you really cannot build infrastructure. You need to improve the standard of living. It becomes impossible. I checked on some of the European countries, Germany, for example, for just for infrastructure in 2026 [it is] going to spend close to US$200bn. So we really need to find the prosperity to develop," he said.
Dr. Nakhle also raised the question of Africa's biggest paradox. "Africa is rich in energy resources, and yet it is poor when it comes to energy consumption. What do you think needs to change to change this reality on the ground?" she asked.
Attah's answer was that Africa is looking at a typically extractive industry when it comes to oil and gas. While the resource belongs to the nation, it was entirely under the control of international oil companies. Due to this structural dislocation, IOCs will extract, go and develop their respective countries with it. But now with majors announcing massive divestments on the back of onshore maturation, companies like Renaissance were feeling the heat. "But I have to thank NNPC for just supporting the divestment to go through. So we bought the share assets, and you can imagine that our philosophy and vision will be different from that of an IOC. We have a very audacious vision to be the African leader in energy. The IOC will not want to be the African leader in energy. They want to be the global leaders, but we want to be the African leader in energy. We want to enable energy security, [and] we want to bring about the industrialisation of Nigeria. Now that was not an assignment for the IOC...We are now taking our destinies in our hands to the extent that we will have no choice than to ensure that that shared prosperity from this energy resource base changes the narrative. On behalf of Nigerians, starting from Nigeria, pivoting to rest of Africa, which is why we like to say as Renaissance, we were made in Nigeria, built for Africa," he said.
On the energy transition front, Silvia Macri, Middle East and Africa lead, Power & Renewables, S&P Global, said, "If you think about diversification, some countries in western Africa, Kenya in eastern Africa, are pushing either away from a fossil fuel heavy energy mix, or diversifying the sources, instead of having one major source of the produces, power or energy for the country; just choosing all the different options that are available. And this is something that South Africa, for example, has started doing at a faster pace. Kenya is probably the country where this has happened at the highest level, because it has a huge availability of geothermal resources, which allowed the diversification into renewables, but western African countries are bringing gas generation in the mix together with renewables...going forward, [it is important that] the decisions that they're making are more for the longer term, and they're not just solving the problem that is immediate."
As the Uganda National Oil Company aims to build a crude refinery, it has reached out to a unit of global commodities trader, Vitol, for a US$2bn loan to support the project alongside construction and infrastructure developments
According to Henry Musasizi, Uganda's junior finance minister, this seven-year tenor loan from Vitol Bahrain EC (VBA) comes with an interest rate of 4.92%. The minister worked on advancing the approval process for the credit line and the loan, which involved significant lawmakers, who sanctioned the development with a majority verdict.
Musasizi said that Vitol's support "presents an opportunity to access non-traditional financing to implement. ..projects and support the government in developing national infrastructure."
Vitol Bahrain EC has a long-standing presence in Uganda's downstream sector, functioning as the sole supplier of refined petroleum products to UNOC, before the state-owned company sells it to retailers across the country.
Alongside the refinery, the loan amount will also be covering road construction, a petroleum products storage terminal and extension of a petroleum pipeline from western Kenya to Uganda's capital Kampala.
Previously, the UNOC also concluded a deal with the UAE-based Alpha MBM Investments, whereby a domestic refinery with a capacity of 60,000 barrels per day is in the pipeline. The agreement accords 60% stake on the refinery to the UAE firm while UNOC retains 40%.
Uganda is looking to begin commercial oil generation starting next year from fields in its west.
Oil Review Africa catches up with Christopher Hudson, President of dmg events, ahead of ADIPEC 2025
Excerpts from an interview:
Energy across Africa, as elsewhere in the world, is seeing major shifts and advancements. How does ADIPEC 2025 reflect this changing industry landscape and help meet the needs?
Energy is one of the most dynamic and rapidly evolving sectors. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy demand rose by 2.2% last year, outpacing the average annual increase of 1.3% recorded over the last decade. At the same time, the global population is projected to reach 9.8 billion by 2050, with over 750 million people still lacking access to electricity, and more than 2.1 billion people remain without access to clean cooking. Rising urbanisation and living standards are reshaping energy demand, with air conditioning alone expected to be one of the largest contributors to electricity demand growth in the coming decades. This reveals the sector’s increasing need to not only produce more energy but to produce it in a way that is equitable and sustainable.
In this context, ADIPEC 2025 is being held under the theme of ‘Energy. Intelligence. Impact’. It reflects a simple but powerful truth: meeting the world’s growing need for secure, affordable and sustainable energy will depend on how intelligently we harness every resource – human, technological and natural – to deliver meaningful results for economies and communities alike.
At its core, the theme recognises that intelligence – both human and artificial – is transforming the way energy is produced, managed, and consumed. From AI-driven optimisation and digital integration to advances in hydrogen, LNG, and decarbonisation, intelligent innovation is reshaping the global energy landscape. ADIPEC serves as the meeting point for these forces, where ideas translate into action and impact can be measured in investment, policy, and progress.
AI is a major topic of discussion in the context of energy, due to its high demand. How is ADIPEC responding to the challenges and opportunities of the AI-energy nexus?
Artificial intelligence is reshaping both global energy demand and the industry’s ability to respond. Data centres already consume around 1.5% of global electricity, and with AI workloads, that demand could more than double by 2030, rising from 415 TWh to 945 TWh. A single advanced AI model can require as much electricity to train as 100 households use in a year, while an AI query may consume 10 times more energy than a standard search.
This convergence is both a challenge and an opportunity. AI requires enormous energy, but it can also optimise grids, cut waste, improve operational efficiency, and accelerate decarbonisation. At ADIPEC 2025, we have expanded our AI Zone into five experiential areas showcasing how AI is transforming systems, people, and infrastructure. Alongside this, more than 80 conference sessions are dedicated to the AI–energy nexus, from predictive analytics to governance frameworks.
For Africa, this is particularly significant. Many countries are rapidly digitalising while also expanding power systems. The ability of AI to enhance reliability and reduce costs could be transformative for energy access and economic growth.
How is the diversity of the African continent and its vast energy sector reflected across ADIPEC 2025’s programme?
Africa is a core part of ADIPEC’s community. This year, we are proud to welcome a strong delegation of African ministers and leaders, including those from Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gambia, Equatorial Guinea, and Egypt. Their participation enriches ADIPEC’s Strategic Conference and exhibitions, ensuring Africa’s perspectives are reflected in discussions on natural gas, hydrogen, downstream, and low-carbon solutions.
dmg events is also the largest organiser of energy and infrastructure events across Africa, with long-standing operations in Nigeria, Mozambique, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, South Africa, Egypt and Morocco. This presence gives us a unique vantage point to bridge African priorities with global dialogue.
Africa holds some of the world’s largest reserves of natural gas, oil, and minerals, as well as enormous potential in renewables. ADIPEC is committed to supporting this potential by convening African voices alongside global leaders, unlocking partnerships that can expand access, accelerate industrialisation, and strengthen Africa’s contribution to global energy progress.
Some of ADIPEC 2025’s notable African speakers include: Honourable J. Opiyo Wandayi, Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum, Kenya; Honourable Sen. Dr. Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister for State (Oil), Petroleum Resources, Nigeria; Rt. Honourable Ekperikpe Ekpo, Minister for State (Gas) Petroleum Resources, Nigeria; Honourable Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, Nigeria; Honourable Julius D. Mattai, Minister of Mines and Mineral Resources, Republic of Sierra Leone; Honourable Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Uganda; His Excellency Karim Badawi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Arab Republic of Egypt; His Excellency Antonio Oburu Ondo, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons, Equatorial Guinea, Honorable Julius D. Mattai, Minister of Mines and Mineral Resources, Republic of Sierra Leonne; Honourable July Moyo, Minister of Energy and Power Development, Zimbabwe; His Excellency Nani Juwara, Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Gambia; Honourable Cheikh Niane, Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Senegal, and Mathias Katamba, board chairman, Uganda National Oil Company.
